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The EUR/USD currency pair traded lower again on Friday. The saying goes, "The music didn't play for long." The euro rose for a mere day and a half before turning downward again. On Friday, there were no significant data releases in the Eurozone, but earlier in the week, Christine Lagarde's remarks set the tone for the euro's sustained decline. However, we believe the euro should be falling regardless of Lagarde's influence, as the market has already priced in the Federal Reserve's monetary easing, and now it's time to factor in the European Central Bank's monetary easing, which is unfolding faster than the market expected.
Additionally, the ECB rate may even be lowered below the "neutral level," as several central bank representatives suggested. As we can see, there are plenty of reasons for the euro's decline, especially considering it has been rising for two years. Even crossing the trendline has yet to lead to a correction. As before, we continue to support the pair's decline, as any correction will merely present a good opportunity for fresh sales.
No trading signals were generated on Friday in the 5-minute time frame. The pair barely reached the resistance area of 1.0845-1.0851 before falling to the 1.0792-1.0804 area. Entering buys or sells at the end of the trading day and week did not make sense.
In the hourly time frame, the EUR/USD pair may start to correct after a month of decline. At the very least, some grounds exist for the euro to rise. We believe the pair could begin an upward correction, though it is unlikely to be strong and would require news supporting the euro. In the medium term, we still expect further decline.
On Monday, novice traders may trade from the 1.0792-1.0804 area again. If there's a breakout below, it would be an excellent opportunity for new sales. However, the trendline has been breached, so at least one more upward correction is possible.
In the 5-minute time frame, consider trading at levels 1.0678, 1.0726-1.0733, 1.0797-1.0804, 1.0845-1.0851, 1.0888-1.0896, 1.0940-1.0951, 1.1011, 1.1048, 1.1091, and 1.1132-1.1140. On Monday, no significant events are scheduled in either the Eurozone or the U.S., so volatility may again be low, and the euro may attempt at least one more round of correction.
Support and Resistance Levels: Levels that serve as targets for opening buys or sells. Take Profit levels can be placed around these areas.
Red Lines: Channels or trend lines that indicate the current trend and the preferred trading direction.
MACD Indicator (14,22,3): Histogram and signal line—an auxiliary indicator that can also be used as a source of signals.
Major speeches and reports (always found in the news calendar) can significantly impact currency pair movements. Therefore, it's advised to trade cautiously or exit the market during their release to avoid sharp price reversals against prior movements.
Beginners trading on the forex market should remember that not every trade will be profitable. A clear strategy and money management are the keys to success in long-term trading.