英鎊/日元(GBP/JPY)組合展現出適度的日內反彈,從去年九月以來未見的水平上升,並突破了關鍵心理水平189.00,從而打破了連續三天的下跌趨勢。
美國總統川普最近的關稅威脅重新引發了人們的擔憂,即日本可能也會成為新貿易關稅的目標,這對日元造成壓力,並促使外匯市場上的英鎊/日元的部分空頭回補。不過,日本銀行(BoJ)的鷹派預期以及對潛在全球貿易戰的擔憂,阻止了做空人士積極尋求日元避險頭寸。
日本銀行貨幣事務部總幹事正木和宏表示,若核心通脹率達到2%的目標,央行將繼續加息。這一觀點得到了連續第二個月日本實際工資上漲的支持,加強了日本銀行進一步收緊貨幣政策的理由。
與此同時,英國銀行的展望顯得遠不那麼樂觀,突顯出兩家央行之間貨幣政策差異的擴大。英國銀行上週將基準利率下調了25個基點,並下調了2025年的增長預測。此外,英國銀行行長Andrew Bailey暗示,今年可能進一步降息,這可能會限制英鎊/日元的上行潛力。
由於今日沒有重要的經濟數據來證實英鎊/日元是否觸底,交易者應等待強勁的買入信號再承諾建立多頭頭寸。一個值得關注的關鍵事件是英國銀行行長Andrew Bailey在週二的演講,這可能對英鎊產生重大影響,為英鎊/日元提供新動力。
從技術角度來看,日線圖上的振盪指標仍然深處於負值區域,加強了對英鎊/日元組合的看跌前景。
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*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。
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