04.12.2024 01:28 PM
今天，美元/日元對在148.60水平反彈後獲得強勁的正向動力，這是自10月11日以來的最低水平。然而，其增長的潛力似乎有限。
投資者似乎相信，在預期新當選美國總統唐納德·特朗普的政策將導致通貨膨脹上升的背景下，美聯儲將採取更加謹慎的方法來降低利率。這種預期正在推動美國國債收益率上升。這是將資金從低收益的日元中抽出的關鍵因素，支持美元，並為美元/日元對提供額外動力。
然而，多頭對於開啟激進的頭寸仍然猶豫不定，更傾向於等待美聯儲主席傑羅姆·鮑威爾的演講以獲取更多關於利率下降未來路徑的信息。此外，根據上週公佈的東京11月消費者物價指數（CPI），顯示核心通脹正在攀升，這助長了市場對日本央行可能在12月再次加息的猜測。這有助於限制美元/日元對進一步上升。
交易者應密切關注美國ADP私營部門就業報告的發佈，以尋找潛在的交易機會。然而，主要的焦點應放在官方每月就業數據或週五的非農就業報告（NFP）上，這將指導美聯儲的貨幣政策決策。這反過來會刺激美元的需求，並決定美元/日元對的短期走勢。
從技術層面來看，日線圖上的震盪指標尚未脫離負面領域，建議在開新倉前應持謹慎態度。
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