昨天公佈的歐元區7月貿易平衡數據超出預期,達到了212億歐元,而預期數字為149億歐元。6月的貿易平衡稍低於之前的估算,為217億歐元。與此同時,股票市場和商品價格上漲,美元指數下跌了0.36%,而歐元則上漲了57個基點。然而,在美聯儲會議前,其他貨幣並未共享這種樂觀情緒。
在昨天的分析中,我們對歐元達到1.1186的目標水準表示懷疑,這些懷疑今天依然存在,因為昨天的高點幾乎與另一個位於2023年12月的峰值重合。從這一點反轉是完全可能的。日線圖中的馬林振盪指標顯示出返回負值區域的意圖。如果市場繼續購買風險資產,這將表示市場無方向徘徊。我們相信歐元會逐漸回到1.1085的支撐水準,屆時將會面臨美聯儲的FOMC報告。
在四小時圖上,價格已經突破短期價格通道的上邊界,這也似乎符合市場無方向漂移的情況。因此,在美聯儲宣布利率決定時,可能會有顯著的雙向波動。最終,我們的主要情景是歐元將下跌至1.1010水平以下。
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*这里的市场分析是为了增加您对市场的了解,而不是给出交易的指示。
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